Chaves Benfica 2025-10-17 21:30 Betting tips

Chaves' cup form demonstrates consistency against lower-division opponents. In the current campaign, the team confidently dispatched Paredes (0-2), replicating last season's successes against Lusitânia Lourosa (2:0) and Arouca (0:2). However, the defeat to Casa Pia (3:0) in November 2024 and the thrashing by Sporting (3:0) in May point to systemic issues when facing Primeira Liga-level clubs. Their last three official matches against top-flight teams have all ended in defeat with an aggregate score of 1:9, revealing a categorical difference in class.

Benfica has been showing inconsistent results in the early phase of the season. In the Primeira Liga, the team has collected 8 points from 4 matches (2 wins, 2 draws), conceding in three of them. In attack, the Eagles have scored in their last 5 matches across all competitions, but have kept a clean sheet in just one game – against ABC (0:3). The defeat to Qarabag (2:3) in the Champions League and the draw with Santa Clara (1:1) highlight defensive issues. Meanwhile, in away matches, the team has shown efficiency with a victory over ABC and, in the previous cup edition, over Santa Clara.

The head-to-head statistics are categorical. In two matches of the 2023/24 season, Benfica secured two victories – 1:0 at home and 0:2 away. Chaves have failed to score against Benfica in the last two head-to-head encounters, losing by a combined 0:3. For Chaves, these games were part of a 7-match winless run against Benfica, with their last victory dating back to 2018. The team from Chaves lost 5 of these 7 meetings, confirming the tactical and individual superiority of the Lisbon side.

Tactically, Chaves in cup matches against weaker opponents relies on organized defense and counter-attacks, but their system falters against the pressure from top clubs. The lack of experience playing against teams that employ a high press becomes a key factor. Benfica, under Roger Schmidt, utilizes aggressive high pressing all over the pitch and possession dominance, which will create problems for Chaves' build-up from the back. Benfica's weaknesses – aerial duels and positional mistakes by defenders – are unlikely to be exploited by Chaves, who lack the necessary power in attack.

The match outcome is predetermined by the difference in class and motivation. For Benfica, the Taça de Portugal is a realistic chance for silverware this season, especially after the Champions League setback. The team will use rotation, but even the reserve squad surpasses Chaves in all components. Prediction: Benfica to win with a -1.5 handicap. A 0:3 scoreline is expected, considering the visitors' defensive vulnerability and the Eagles' motivation to redeem themselves for recent failures.