# | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | PTS |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
10 |
Shinnik Yaroslavl
|
14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 17 |
18 |
Torpedo Moskva
|
14 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 10 | 22 | -12 | 10 |
Torpedo Moscow are showing inconsistent form, having secured just one win in their last five matches across all competitions. In the FNL, the team has lost three of their last four encounters, conceding seven goals in those games. Their only positive result was an away 1:0 victory over Yenisey. However, their home performances are a serious cause for concern: in six matches at their own ground, the team has suffered four defeats, conceding 11 goals with just a single win. Their attacking numbers are low – 10 goals in 14 league rounds.
Shinnik Yaroslavl are in a more confident state, despite a defeat in the last round against SKA-Khabarovsk (3:1). Prior to that, the team secured a confident victory over Rotor (2:0) and thrashed Cherepovets in the Russian Cup (4:1). In the FNL, the Yaroslavl side demonstrates a reliable defense in away matches: in seven games on the road, they have conceded just 6 goals, registered four draws and only two defeats. The team is distinguished by high defensive discipline away from home.
League statistics reveal a significant gap in defensive reliability. Torpedo has conceded 22 goals in 14 rounds (1.57 on average per game), while Shinnik has conceded only 11 (0.79). The goal difference for the Muscovites is -12, for the Yaroslavl side it's -1. In home matches, Torpedo has kept a clean sheet in just one out of six games. Shinnik has conceded an average of 0.86 goals per game in their away matches. A trend towards low scoring is evident: Torpedo scores 0.71 goals per match, Shinnik – 0.71.
Head-to-head history points to a high probability of a draw. Three of the last four matches between these teams have ended in a draw, including two with a 1:1 scoreline. The only victory in this series belongs to Torpedo (1:0 in May 2025). In the last four head-to-head clashes, the teams exchanged goals but most often could not determine a winner.
Tactically, the match is likely to follow a scenario of guest control and host counter-attacks. Shinnik, possessing a more reliable defense, will play from the back, utilizing set-pieces. Torpedo's weak defense, especially on the flanks, could be vulnerable to the visitors' quick attacks. The key battle will be in the center of the park, where Shinnik holds an advantage in organization. Torpedo will have to look for chances in quick transitions, but their lack of finishing casts doubt on the effectiveness of this tactic.
Considering Torpedo's poor home form, Shinnik's solid away performances, and the history of drawn results in head-to-head meetings, the most likely outcome appears to be a draw. A low-scoring match with a midfield battle is expected. The draw outcome is recommended, with the most probable scores being 0:0 or 1:1.