Real Madrid Villarreal 2025-10-04 22:00 Betting tips

Real Madrid's current form showcases high efficiency, marred only by a recent heavy defeat. In their last five matches across all competitions, the team has secured four victories: a 2:0 win over Espanyol, a 2:1 win against Marseille in the Champions League, a 4:1 away win against Levante, and a 2:1 win over Real Sociedad. However, this run was interrupted by a crushing 5:2 away defeat to Atletico Madrid, which exposed serious issues in their defensive setup. Despite this, Real Madrid maintains a 100% home record in La Liga: three wins from three matches with an aggregate score of 5:1.

Villarreal is on a run of three consecutive wins in the league, having beaten Sevilla (2:1) and Osasuna (2:1) at home, and also drawn 1:1 with Celta Vigo. However, the team lost to Atletico (2:0) and Tottenham in the Champions League (1:0). A key trend is the team's absolute reliability at their home ground, where they have secured four wins from four La Liga matches with a goal difference of 10:1. Their away record, however, is more modest: one win, one draw, and one defeat with a goal difference of 3:4.

Statistics point to Real Madrid's dominance in head-to-head encounters. In the last four meetings, the Madrid side has secured three victories: 2:1 away in March 2025, 2:0 at home in October 2024, and 4:1 at home in December 2023. The only exception was a high-scoring 4:4 draw in May 2024 at Villarreal's ground. In the current season, Real Madrid sits in second place with 18 points, having conceded 8 goals, but boasts the league's best attack with 16 goals scored. Villarreal is in third position with 16 points and has a goal difference of 13:5, highlighting their defensive solidity.

Real Madrid's tactical setup is built around aggressive high pressing and quick attacks via the flanks. Following the defeat to Atletico, which disrupted their defense, adjustments in midfield to enhance control are expected. Villarreal traditionally employs a possession-based attacking game with a high volume of passes, but in away matches against top teams, they often opt for a compact defense and counter-attacks. Direct clashes between these styles in recent matches have consistently produced a high number of goals – three or more goals were scored in three of the last four encounters.

Match outcome recommendation – Real Madrid to win. The reasoning: Real Madrid's 100% home record in the league versus Villarreal's less convincing away stats, historical dominance in head-to-head meetings, and the motivation to bounce back from a humiliating defeat. Villarreal is expected to put up a fight and might get on the scoresheet, considering the hosts' shaky defense in their last outing, however, the individual quality of Real Madrid's attack should be the decisive factor. Predicted score: 3:1.