Alaves Valencia 2025-10-20 22:00 Betting tips

Alavés are showing inconsistent form, as evidenced by their WLDLW sequence in the last five rounds. The team has collected 11 points after 8 matches, sitting in 10th place. Their home record is a strong point: 2 wins, 1 draw, and 1 defeat at the Mendizorrotza. Notably, the team has scored in three of their four home games, conceding 5 goals in those matches. Their last home game ended in a defeat to Sevilla (1:2), although prior to that, they secured an important result against Atlético Madrid (1:1). In attack, the team isn't highly prolific (9 goals this season), but they show reliability in defense, having conceded only 8 goals.

Valencia are in a deeper crisis, with a LLDWL form and sitting in 15th place in the table with 8 points. The team's main problem is their catastrophic away form: 0 wins, 1 draw, and 3 defeats in away matches. In these four games, the team conceded 11 goals, scoring only 3. The heavy defeat to Barcelona (0:6) is particularly telling, highlighting the defense's vulnerability when facing high pressure. At the same time, Valencia look confident at home, having beaten Athletic Club (2:0) and Getafe (3:0), indicating a significant imbalance between their home and away performances.

In the last three head-to-head meetings, Alavés have remained unbeaten against Valencia, securing two wins and one draw. In the match at the Mendizorrotza in May 2025, Alavés won with a 1:0 scoreline. This statistic gives the hosts a serious psychological advantage. Alavés's overall scoring record is modest, but against Valencia's vulnerable away defense, they have every chance to score.

Tactically, the match will likely be built on contrasts. Alavés, especially at home, prefer to play from a defensive stance, using quick counter-attacks via the flanks. Their defensive line is organized well enough to withstand Valencia's attacks, given the latter's low effectiveness away from home. The key for the hosts will be controlling the midfield and applying pressure in the middle third to prevent Valencia from executing their standard combinations.

Valencia show serious defensive gaps on their travels, especially when dealing with pacey attacks. Having conceded 11 goals in 4 away matches, a systemic problem is evident. The team may try to take the initiative, but upon losing possession, they are often vulnerable to counter-attacks. Their chances will be linked to their forward line's conversion of chances and set-piece situations, where they can utilize their physical power.

Considering Alavés's absolute dominance in the head-to-head record and Valencia's catastrophic away form, the hosts are clear favorites. Alavés are stable at home, while Valencia demonstrate systemic defensive problems on the road. Alavés are expected to control the game and create a sufficient number of chances at the visitors' goal. However, Alavés's attacking weakness and potential cautious play in the middle phase of the match could limit the overall scoring. A home win by a narrow margin is predicted, based on a more reliable defensive organization and the ability to capitalize on key moments.

Match Result Recommendation: Home Win. Predicted Score: 1:0.