Lecce Bologna 2025-09-28 19:00 Betting tips

Lecce's current form reflects a deep crisis. The team sits bottom of the table in 20th place with just one point after four matchdays. In their last three Serie A matches, the team has suffered defeats: 1-2 to Cagliari at home, 1-4 to Atalanta, and 0-2 to Milan. Their only positive result is a goalless draw away to Genoa. Their overall goal difference of -6 (2:8) highlights systemic problems in both attack and defense. At home, Lecce have lost both of their matches, conceding four goals while scoring just one.

In contrast to the hosts, Bologna are showing inconsistent but overall more convincing performances. The team is in 11th place with six points. Their WLWL form reflects an alternation of wins and losses. However, all their victories (2-1 vs Genoa, 1-0 vs Como) were secured at their home stadium. Away from home, Bologna lost to Milan (0-1) and Roma (0-1), and also suffered a defeat in the Europa League to Aston Villa (0-1). A key statistical insight: in four league matches, Bologna have conceded only three goals, demonstrating a solid defensive structure. However, their attacking potential is also limited, with just three goals scored.

The head-to-head record is completely in Bologna's favor. In the last four direct encounters, Lecce have failed to secure a single victory. In the two matches last season, Bologna won 1-0 at home, and a 0-0 draw was recorded in the away fixture. Furthermore, in February 2024, Bologna thrashed Lecce 4-0. This statistics points to the visitors' tactical and psychological superiority in this matchup.

The tactical setup is predetermined by the teams' current conditions. Lecce, struggling with finishing and defensive stability, will be forced to play defensively, trying to rely on set-pieces and counter-attacks. However, their defense looks vulnerable against any organized attack. Bologna, known for their disciplined play under Thiago Motta, will most likely control possession and the tempo of the game. Their defense, having conceded only three league goals, is one of their key assets. The main issue for the visitors is their goalscoring, but against a defense as weak as Lecce's, they have every chance to overcome this problem.

Given Bologna's complete dominance in the head-to-head record, their stable defense, and Lecce's catastrophic form, conceding an average of two goals per game, the most likely outcome appears to be an away victory. Lecce are demonstrating an inability to score and defensive fragility, especially at home. Bologna, despite their attacking issues, possess sufficient quality and tactical discipline to score and maintain their advantage. Predicted score: 0-2 in favor of Bologna.