Fiorentina AS Roma 2025-10-05 16:00 Betting tips

Fiorentina are showing crisis form at the start of the season. The team has failed to secure a single win in five Serie A rounds, amassing only 3 points. In two home matches against Napoli and Como, the Viola suffered defeats with identical scores of 1-2 and 1-3, conceding a total of 5 goals. The attacking line is proving inefficient – with just 3 goals scored in the league, while in their last three games across all competitions, the team has consistently conceded two or more goals. The only positive note can be found in their stable away results, where Fiorentina played out three goalless draws, but at home the team looks vulnerable.

AS Roma, on the contrary, are on the rise, occupying 3rd place in the table with 12 points. The team boasts 4 wins in 5 opening rounds, coupled with the best defensive stats in the league – just 1 goal conceded. Their WWLWW form following a victory in the Rome derby against Lazio (0-1) and a confident away win in the Europa League against Nice (1-2) points to excellent playing condition. The defensive performance is particularly impressive: Roma have not conceded a single goal in two away league matches, securing clean sheet victories against Pisa and Lazio.

Statistical insights confirm the polarity of the teams' form. Fiorentina have the worst chance conversion rate in the league – just 0.6 goals scored per game against expected goals (xG) of around 1.3. Roma, in turn, are demonstrating exemplary defence: their xGA (expected goals against) stands at 0.8 per match, while in reality the team concedes 5 times less frequently. Head-to-head encounters show a trend towards low scoring: in three of the last four matches between these sides, fewer than 2.5 goals have been scored, with Fiorentina failing to beat Roma in Turin since 2020.

The tactical setup suggests a clash of two opposing models. Fiorentina, traditionally taking the initiative and controlling possession at home, will face the visitors' structured defence. Roma, under the guidance of De Rossi, have perfected the art of the counter-attack, utilizing the pace of their wingers and vertical passes. The key battle will be in the center of the park, where Roma may concede possession but will create more dangerous chances. Fiorentina's vulnerability in the defensive flanks could be exploited by the Romans to create goal-scoring opportunities.

Match outcome and score recommendation: given the teams' current form, a win for AS Roma with a (0) handicap appears to be the most likely outcome. Roma are showing phenomenal defensive discipline and attacking efficiency, while Fiorentina are struggling to find their game, especially in home fixtures. The predicted scoreline is 0-1 or 0-2 in favor of the Romans, which aligns with their away statistics and the general trend of matches between these teams.