# | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | PTS |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
4 |
Ural
|
13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 21 | 15 | +6 | 24 |
16 |
Chayka
|
14 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 12 | 28 | -16 | 11 |
Chayka is experiencing a deep crisis, especially in home matches. In six games at their own ground, the team has failed to secure a single victory: 0 wins, 2 draws, 4 losses. Their goal difference stands at 4-16, averaging 2.67 goals conceded per game. In their last five rounds across all competitions, the team has scored only 3 goals, two of which came in a Russian Cup match against the lower-league club Znamya Truda. Their attack in the FNL is practically paralyzed: in the last three league matches, Chayka failed to score, playing out two goalless draws. Defensive issues are systemic: in two of their last five home games, the team conceded 4 goals (against Spartak Kostroma and Chernomorets). Their current form of WDDLL and 16th place in the standings with 11 points confirms their instability.
Ural is in the upper part of the table, occupying 4th position with 24 points. Despite a current form of LLDWD, which includes two consecutive losses in the FNL, the team demonstrates high scoring efficiency. In their last five matches across all tournaments, Ural has scored 8 goals. Their away record is solid: 3 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses with a goal difference of 8-9. The team shows an ability to score away from home but also displays some defensive vulnerability. In attack, Ural is notable for its variety, and their 21 goals scored in 13 rounds is one of the best indicators in the league. Away match statistics point to a high probability of goals from the visitors: in 4 out of 6 away FNL matches, both teams have scored.
In head-to-head encounters, Ural's tactical advantage is evident. In two matches from previous seasons, the Yekaterinburg side remained undefeated: a 2:0 home win and a 1:1 away draw. Ural demonstrated an ability to control the game and create chances against Chayka's defense. Tactically, the match is likely to unfold with the visitors pressing the hosts. Chayka, struggling to build play from defense to attack, will be forced to play defensively, relying on counter-attacks. However, their average scoring rate of 0.86 goals per match in the league does not make this tactic seem highly effective. Ural, possessing higher-quality player selection, will dominate the midfield and create threats from set-pieces and attacks down the flanks, where Chayka is particularly vulnerable.
The match recommendation is based on statistical and tactical considerations. A Ural win with a (0) handicap appears to be the most likely outcome, considering Chayka's catastrophic home statistics and their attacking problems. The predicted scoreline is 0-2. This score reflects Chayka's inability to score in recent matches and Ural's tendency to score away, as well as their motivation to return to a winning streak after two defeats. The probability of an away clean sheet is high due to the hosts' poor conversion rate.