Libertad Asuncion Sportivo Ameliano 2025-10-18 23:30 Betting tips

Libertad are showing inconsistent form, having collected just 4 points from their last five league matches. The L-D-L-L-W sequence points to systemic issues, particularly in attack. However, the team looks significantly more confident away from home: 3 wins and 3 draws in 8 away matches with a goal difference of 12-6. Their home record, in contrast, is disastrous: just 1 win in 8 games, with 5 goals scored and 10 conceded. The home defeat to 2 de Mayo (0:1) and the draw with Cerro Porteño (1:1) confirm serious problems on their own turf. The crushing away victory over Sportivo Luqueño (4:1) proves the team has potential, but it is being realized extremely inconsistently.

Sportivo Ameliano are in an even deeper crisis, having gathered only 3 points from their last five matches with a D-L-L-L-W form. The team sits in 11th place, has the worst goal difference in the league (-14), and displays catastrophic defensive work: 30 goals conceded in 16 matches. The situation worsens on their travels: 1 win, 1 draw, and 6 defeats in 8 away games, with a goal difference of 9-18. In their last three away matches, the team conceded 8 goals (defeats to Olimpia (1:2), Cerro Porteño (0:2), and Sportivo Trinidense (0:1)), which points to systemic defensive failures on the road.

Head-to-head encounters show Libertad's complete dominance. In the last eight meetings, Libertad have won 4 times, 3 games ended in a draw, and Sportivo Ameliano managed to win only once. The teams already met this season in August, and Libertad thrashed their opponent away with a 4:0 scoreline. Furthermore, Libertad have kept clean sheets against Ameliano in their last three head-to-head meetings. The goal statistics are also telling: in the last four matches between these teams, Libertad have scored 11 goals, while Sportivo Ameliano have scored only 2.

Tactically, Libertad, despite their low position in the table, remain a team that controls the game and creates chances. Their main problem is conversion, especially in home matches where they have scored only 5 goals. They are expected to dominate in possession-based attacks, utilizing set-pieces, where Sportivo Ameliano's defense is traditionally vulnerable. Sportivo Ameliano will most likely try to play defensively, relying on counter-attacks. However, their away statistics (18 goals conceded) and the recent thrashing by this same opponent suggest a high probability of conceding several goals. The first goal will be key: if Libertad scores it, it could force the visitors to open up, leading to additional space and further scoring opportunities.

Considering Libertad's catastrophic home record and Sportivo Ameliano's even weaker away form, this match appears to be a turning point for the hosts. Despite their finishing issues, the class and head-to-head statistics are unequivocally in Libertad's favor. The hosts are expected to finally utilize their potential against one of the league's weakest defensive units. Recommendation: Libertad Asunción to win. Predicted score: 2:0. This outcome is based on Sportivo Ameliano's inability to keep a clean sheet away from home (averaging 2.25 goals conceded per game) and Libertad's historical dominance in head-to-head fixtures.