Heerenveen Excelsior 2025-10-04 22:00 Betting tips

Heerenveen are showing inconsistent form, having collected just 6 points after 7 rounds and sitting in 16th position. In their last five matches, the team has registered one win, two draws, and two defeats. However, their home numbers look more stable: in 4 matches at their own ground, they have 1 win, 2 draws, and 1 defeat with a goal difference of 7-7. Their attack is functioning, scoring an average of 1.75 goals per game at home, but the defensive line concedes regularly – 12 goals in 7 league matches. In their latest home game, they secured an important victory over NEC (3:2), which could boost their confidence.

Excelsior find themselves in a similar league situation, also on 6 points, but with a worse goal difference (-9). The team's form is a classic sawtooth pattern (LWLWL), indicating extreme instability. Their away results are catastrophic: 3 defeats in 3 matches, with a goal difference of 3-10. In their last two away games, the team conceded 5 goals against Utrecht and 2 against Volendam, which points to systemic problems in their away defense. The only silver lining was a recent home draw with PSV (1:1), but this is unlikely to indicate a sustained positive trend.

Statistical data highlights Excelsior's defensive vulnerability. The team concedes an average of 2.14 goals per match in the league, and this figure rises to 3.33 away from home. Meanwhile, their attacking numbers are modest – just 6 goals scored in 7 rounds. Heerenveen, in turn, are showing more balanced play, especially in attack: 10 goals this season, 7 of which were scored at home. The trend for both teams to score is evident in 3 of Heerenveen's last 5 home games, which, given Excelsior's vulnerable defense, looks like a probable scenario.

Tactically, the match will likely come down to Heerenveen's attempts to control possession and create chances from set-pieces and attacks down the flanks. The home side will look to use their more prolific attack against the visitors' unstable defense. Excelsior will most likely adopt a deep defensive block and rely on counter-attacks, trying to utilize the pace of their forwards. However, their tendency for individual errors in defense, especially in away matches, will be a key risk factor. The sole previous head-to-head meeting, which ended in a (3:0) rout in favor of Excelsior, is hardly indicative given the current form and the Rotterdam team's defensive issues.

Considering Heerenveen's stable home numbers and Excelsior's catastrophic away results, the advantage for the hosts looks clear. Kees van Wonderen's team demonstrates the ability to score and pick up points at home, while the visitors consistently concede on their travels. Heerenveen are expected to control the game and create enough chances to secure a victory. The Heerenveen win is recommended, considering their attack should be able to break down the guests' unstable defense. Predicted score: 3:1.