Burnley Leeds 2025-10-18 17:00 Betting tips

Burnley are in crisis form, having failed to win any of their last four Premier League fixtures. In three of those matches, the team conceded three or more goals: 2-3 to Manchester United, 1-5 to Manchester City. Their sole home defeat, a 0-1 loss to Liverpool, points to a relatively solid defence on their own turf; however, their attack lacks sufficient efficiency. The team has gathered just 4 points after 7 matchdays, sitting in 18th place in the table. Their home record is modest: 1 win, 1 draw, 1 defeat, with a goal difference of 3-2. This indicates a cautious, defensive brand of football at their home ground, but chronic problems in away games are exacerbating their overall situation.

Leeds are in a more stable position with 8 points and 15th place. The team's form is inconsistent (LDWLD), but it includes a confident 3-1 away win against Wolverhampton. Furthermore, they are unbeaten in their last three matches, drawing with Bournemouth (2-2) and securing one victory. Their attacking numbers are modest – 7 goals in 7 matches – however, in two of their last three games, they have scored two or more goals, demonstrating growing efficiency in the final third. Questions remain about their away defence: 7 goals conceded in 3 matches on the road.

Statistical insights highlight a key contradiction. Burnley concede an average of 0.67 goals per game at home, which is a relatively reliable figure. However, their overall goal difference of -8 (-15 conceded) demonstrates catastrophic failures in away matches. Leeds, in turn, score an average of 1 goal per game, but their away average is also 1.0. Both teams have a negative goal difference, which is typical for clubs in the bottom half of the table. Burnley's current form is LLDLL, compared to LDWLD for Leeds, indicating a slight but significant advantage for the visitors in terms of morale and points gathered in recent games.

Tactically, the match will likely boil down to Burnley's attempts to control the game through possession and pressing in the middle third, with an emphasis on set-pieces. The vulnerability of Leeds' defence in away matches could be exploited through organised attacks and deliveries from the flanks. Leeds will probably rely on quick counter-attacks, using the pace of their wingers against the hosts' less mobile backline. The key battle could be in central midfield, where the higher intensity of the visitors could cause problems for Burnley's passing game. The main contest is expected to unfold between the hosts' attempts to impose their style of play and Leeds' counter-attacking potential.

Given Burnley's solid home defensive record coupled with their simultaneous lack of firepower, and Leeds' inconsistent but potentially more dangerous attack, the most likely outcome appears to be a draw. Burnley will be difficult to score heavily against at home, but they will also struggle to score themselves with their current efficiency. Leeds have shown the ability to score away from home, but their defence is not reliable. Match outcome recommendation: Draw. Predicted score: 1-1.