Ajax AZ Alkmaar 2025-10-18 22:00 Betting tips

Ajax is showing consistent but unimpressive form in the Eredivisie, remaining undefeated after eight rounds with a record of 4 wins and 4 draws. However, their home and away statistics differ drastically. At home, the team is perfect: 4 wins in 4 matches with an aggregate score of 9:2. In their last two home games against NAC Breda (2:1) and PEC Zwolle (3:1), they confidently took all three points. Away matches, on the contrary, are characterized by a series of four consecutive draws, including fixtures against PSV (2:2) and Volendam (1:1). The 0:2 defeat to Inter in the Champions League exposed their problems against top-class opposition.

AZ Alkmaar sits in fourth place, trailing by just one point. Their current form is less stable – one win, two draws, and one defeat in the last four rounds. The team shows high scoring efficiency, having netted 17 goals, but also conceding 12. In their last two home matches, draws were recorded with identical 2:2 and 3:3 scores against PEC Zwolle and Feyenoord respectively, indicating defensive issues. Meanwhile, away from home, AZ looks solid: 2 wins, 1 draw, and 1 defeat with a positive goal difference (6:5).

The head-to-head statistics are categorically not in Ajax's favor. In the last four encounters, AZ Alkmaar has secured three victories, with one game ending in a draw. Ajax has not beaten AZ since 2023. In three of these four meetings, AZ scored two or more goals. The current season shows that Ajax has conceded in 6 out of 8 league matches, while AZ has scored in 7 out of 8. Both teams are expected to continue their scoring traditions.

Tactically, Ajax, playing at home, will take the initiative and control possession, applying constant pressure on the visitors' defense. Their vulnerability may lie in counter-attacks. AZ Alkmaar, judging by recent results, possesses powerful attacking potential, but their defense does not look the most reliable, especially in games against opponents of similar strength. AZ will likely not cede midfield control to Ajax and will actively utilize set-pieces. The key battle will be between the effective home attack of Ajax and the unstable but dangerous attacking team of AZ.

Considering Ajax's perfect home record in the league and their motivation to break the negative streak in head-to-head meetings, they have a slight advantage. However, the staggering head-to-head statistics and AZ's ability to score in any match make them an extremely dangerous opponent. An open game with goals from both sides is expected. Ajax rarely keeps a clean sheet, and AZ demonstrates an unstable defense. The outcome of a Home Win with a total over 2.5 is recommended. The predicted score is 3:1 in favor of Ajax, who should finally overcome the psychological barrier in this fixture by using their home advantage.