# | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | PTS |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2 |
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16 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 26 | 16 | +10 | 32 |
8 |
Olimpia
|
16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 21 | 26 | -5 | 19 |
Cerro Porteño are displaying stable and confident form, having remained unbeaten in their last five rounds. During this stretch, the team has secured three wins and two draws. Their defensive work is particularly impressive: they have kept a clean sheet in three of these five matches, conceding only two goals. The home fortress of "El Ciclón" looks reliable: in their last four games at the Estadio General Pablo Rojas, they have two wins and two draws, including confident 2-0 victories over Sportivo Ameliano and Deportivo Recoleta. The team is in second place in the standings with 32 points, trailing the leader but still in the title race, which serves as a powerful motivational factor.
Olimpia, in contrast, are going through an inconsistent period. Despite two recent victories, the overall picture raises questions. The three rounds prior to that yielded just one point and a heavy 4-1 defeat to Nacional. The team's main problem is their away form: after 16 rounds, they have just one win in eight away matches with six defeats. Their goal difference on the road (-10) speaks volumes about systemic issues in both defense and attack away from home. Their seventh place in the table with 19 points virtually eliminates their tournament prospects in the Clausura.
Head-to-head statistics point to a keenly contested rivalry, but recently the initiative has shifted towards the visitors. In the last three derbies, there has been only one draw, with the visiting team celebrating victory in the other two matches. Notably, in the most recent head-to-head meeting in August, it was Cerro Porteño who beat Olimpia 3-2 away from home. In seven of the last eight personal encounters, both teams have found the net, indicating a high probability of both teams scoring. Cerro Porteño typically score an average of 1.6 goals per match, while Olimpia concede an average of 1.6.
Tactically, the match is likely to follow a script of total dominance by the hosts. Cerro Porteño, boasting a more cohesive squad and a reliable defense, will control possession and look for opportunities against Olimpia's shaky away defense. The key battle will be in central midfield, where Cerro have the advantage in organization. Olimpia will be forced to rely on counter-attacks, utilizing the pace of their forwards. However, their main weakness – their defense on the road – is unlikely to withstand the constant pressure from the hosts. Statistics show that Olimpia concede an average of 2.4 goals per game away from home.
Considering the current form, motivation, head-to-head statistics, and the stark contrast in home performance quality, Cerro Porteño stand out as the clear favorites. A bet on a home win is recommended. Olimpia are expected to get on the scoresheet, given their attacking power and the history of both teams scoring in the derby, but their defense is unlikely to hold firm. The predicted scoreline is 2:1 in favor of Cerro Porteño.